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Suncor's (TSE: SU) CDS - Is A Default On The Horizon?

Submitted by Stockaholic on Sun, 01/25/2009 - 22:26.

Sometimes equity investors have a habit of overlooking the bond/credit markets. But in times like these, when credit markets are tight, the states of corporate balance sheets become more important than ever and it becomes imperative for all equity investors to watch and understand the credit markets.

Take Suncor Energy (TSE: SU) for example. SU was Canada’s favourite oil and gas stock from 2004 – 2007. It is one of Canada’s largest oil and gas stock (by market cap), it produces almost 300,000 Boe/d, earns over $2 billion per year, and has probably the most ambitious plans for the Albert Oil Sands – plans that were originally estimated to cost ~$6 billion.

Now that oil prices have tumbled by over 70%, oil and gas companies like SU are cutting production and reducing budgets for major projects. In the case of SU, management has recently slashed the budget and scale for its new Oil Sands project by roughly half. The equity market responded accordingly and SU’s stock price fell by almost 70% from its peak.

Still, many investors look at a company like SU and suggest that it’s now trading at deep value territory and may be a good long term investment. Those investors could very well be correct; given that SU’s stock price has recently held within a well defined trading range, the stock could be showing signs of bottoming. However, now may be a good time to see what the credit market thinks of SU’s future.

A good place to start would be to check out the price of a credit default swap on SU’s debt. But, before we begin, we’ll start with a quick primer on credit default swaps.

A Primer on Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Credit default swaps are agreements between two parties that are essentially a form of insurance against default on an underlying credit instrument. A CDS may for example reference a 5 year bond of a particular company. You or I could buy that bond and receive the coupon (interest) payments until maturity, at which point we receive our principal back. The risk we, as the purchaser of the bond, are exposed to is the chance the company may default on repaying the bond. A CDS is a way to protect against this risk. The purchaser of the CDS pays a periodic fee (commonly referred to as the CDS price) for credit protection. The seller receives the periodic payment in exchange for a commitment to guarantee the principal re-payment of the bond.

Now that you have the background, take a look at the CDS chart for Suncor:

SU CDS Chart

First of all, this is one scary chart. Clearly, the credit market sees something very wrong with SU’s ability to repay its debt. Right now, it costs nearly 700bps per annum to protect oneself from a Suncor default. What’s more, this price has increased substantially over the last few months. CDS charts like this are reminiscent of Lehman brothers whose CDS price jumped to almost 700 bps before they went under (see Lehman CDS chart below):

LEH CDS Chart

Before jumping to conclusions and suggesting Suncor will be joining the likes of Lehman, we should first check whether this just the result of general tightness in the credit markets with CDS prices increasing across all oil and gas companies. To answer that, check out the table below, which shows the recent prices on 5 year CDS for a number of oil and gas companies.

Oil & Gas CDS Table

As you can see, the trend emerging here is a dichotomy between Canadian oil sands producers and international oil/gas producers. SU isn’t the only company that we’re seeing massive increases in the price of credit protection. CNQ also seems to be on the “default watch” list. What these two companies have in common is that nearly all of their production (current and future) comes from the high cost Canadian Oil sands. This production requires higher oil prices to make it economically viable. Companies like Husky and Nexen aren’t fairing much better, but the cost of credit protection on these companies is significantly lower as both have a substantial amount of production coming from more conventional (low cost) reserves. The other major international companies are even further down the spectrum as their production profiles are even more diversified.

So before you go dumping your money back into the Canadian Oil Sand producers (and any company for that matter) thinking their stock’s are just too cheap to ignore, take a minute and consider what the credit market thinks of the company’s solvency. The credit market is after all principally concerned with a company’s balance sheet and its ability to remain solvent, so this market’s opinion of a company’s creditworthiness should be taken very seriously.

It’s scary to think that big Canadian icons like Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources may be on the verge of bankruptcy, but charts don’t lie. The credit market believes there’s a real risk that these two companies could be in for some serious trouble, and I would tend to agree should oil prices remain at these levels for much longer. Price spikes come and go, but sustained increases in the price of credit protection like these need to be duly noted.


Recommendation: Medium-term sell, or don't buy. I do believe oil prices will recover, but the question is when. And if it takes too long, Oil Sand companies like SU could be in trouble. Besides, believing you're smarter than the credit market is taking a huge risk.

Ownership Disclosure: I do not currently own SU shares.

Disclaimer: Any information contained in the above article represents my opinions only, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. I cannot assess, verify or guarantee the suitability of any particular investment to any particular situation and the reader of the article bears complete responsibility for its own investment research and should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional that provides individualized advice prior to making any investment decisions. All opinions expressed and information and data provided therein are subject to change without notice.


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