Natural Gas – What Companies Will Benefit From Rising Prices?
I am not, nor do I believe I ever will be, a natural gas trader. It’s an extremely volatile commodity that depends heavily on the weather. However, from a long-term perspective, I do believe a trend is emerging. The world is demanding more and more energy every year. Furthermore, the world is beginning to demand clean energy (see my previous Oil & Natural Gas article). Renewable resources like wind, hydro electric, and solar power are all great, but they simply aren’t robust enough (or cheap enough) to meet global energy demands. Energy sources like uranium and natural gas are much cleaner than crude oil and coal. But if you’re like me and don’t have the stomach to trade natural gas, then I’d suggest you look at some of the gas weighted equities listed on the TSX – and there are a bunch.
Lately natural gas prices have plunged (see chart below) as nat gas inventories have swelled and cooler weather across much of North America has reduced electricity demand.
Putting aside Tropical Storm Gustav and Tropical Storm Hanna for the moment, I believe a longer term trend is being established and I think the latest drop in prices was simply a much needed correction.
There’s also the fact that Crude oil has significantly outperformed natural gas. Relative to crude oil, nat gas is cheaper than it has been in 10 years.
So, if you believe in the long term story for natural gas, then some of the gas weighted trusts may be a good long term investment. Unlike the commodity itself, companies have assets that don’t just evaporate in value. I personally like Advantage Energy Income Fund (TSE: AVN.UN), however, if you’re looking for others, below is a table listing all of the energy producers in the TSX Energy sub-index and their respective exposure to natural gas (nat gas production as a % of total production).
Recommendation: Keep your eyes on natural gas producing equities. Companies like AVN.UN are looking very attractive at these levels as a long term investment.
Ownership Disclosure: I currently own units of Advantage Energy Income Fund (TSE: AVN.UN).
Disclaimer: Any information contained in the above article represents my opinions only, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. I cannot assess, verify or guarantee the suitability of any particular investment to any particular situation and the reader of the article bears complete responsibility for its own investment research and should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional that provides individualized advice prior to making any investment decisions. All opinions expressed and information and data provided therein are subject to change without notice.
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RE: good article..
Thanks very much for your comment.
T. Boone's plan - reducing America's dependency on foreign oil by promoting alternative energy sources like wind power and natural gas - should have the affect of increasing both America's demand for natural gas and the amount supplied by producers. I think the public will begin to relize that things like natural gas powered cars are much more feasible than vehicles powered by ethanol (and in the end, probably cheaper too).
Unlike oil, natural gas isn't a commodity that's in very short supply... their is quite a bit of it hiding in the ground. The problem is, a lot of the remaining supply in the ground is expensive to get at... and for America, their big supplies are in the Gulf of Mexico, obviously an area that's getting more and more difficult to operate in every year. Shale gas (like that in Western Canada's Montney, or Quebec's Utica area) are where new gas supply will come from.
In the end, I think if T. Boone's plan really catches on, then demand growth will likely outpace any supply growth... which is obviously great for producers.
good article..
Another very informative post...I especially find your natural gas exposure chart very interesting...
Im curious as to what you think T. Boone Pickens plan will have on Natural gas, if any.