HOU ETF - A Bullish Indicator For Oil?

Submitted by Stockaholic on Fri, 01/02/2009 - 16:19.

On July 3, I posted the article “HOD ETFs – A Bearish Indicator For Oil?” suggesting that the exponential increase in trading volume that we were seeing in the new Horizon Beta Pro HOD ETF (the one that offers 200% downside exposure to the daily change in crude oil prices) could be evidence that a substantial correction was coming. July 3rd was when oil hit its all-time high of $145. Since then, spot oil prices have declined by roughly 70% and HOD volume has dropped substantially (see chart below).

Now with oil trading at levels not seen since 2004 what is the HOU volume telling us? (Note: The HOU ETF is HOD’s counterpart that offers 200% upside exposure to the daily change in crude oil prices).

The chart says it all. The daily average volume for the first three quarters of the year was roughly 38,000 units. Since October 31st, on the other hand, the average daily volume was 1.3 million units and over the last 3 weeks (a typically is a low volume period) the daily average was 2.5 million units traded.

One thing to keep in mind, in the analysis above, we’re only looking at the # of units traded. Given that oil has sold off so much, each HOU unit is only worth a fraction of what it was back in the spring/summer. So it’s logical to assume more units would be traded given that each is worth much less. A better indicator would be the dollar value traded.

Looking at the dollar value of the units traded, the daily average in the first 3 quarters of the year was roughly $5 million. Since October 31st, however, the average daily value was over $20 million. And over the last three weeks it was almost $32 million.

How exactly does an average daily value traded of $32 million compare to other equities on the TSX? That’s roughly inline with Thomson Reuters (TSE: TRI), Imperial Oil (TSE: IMO), Husky Energy (TSE: HSE), Sun Life Financial (TSE: SLF) and Telus (TSE: T). But unlike the HOU ETF, the value traded for these shares has declined since the beginning of the year.

Suffice it to say, the HOU ETF has experienced a major volume increase, one that shouldn’t go unnoticed – the volume increase in the HOD ETF back in the summer certainly proved that. Could this be marking the bottom for crude oil? For the gamblers out there, I’d say taking out a small long position is worth a shot.

Recommendation: Speculative medium-term buy. I'd rarely suggest buying based on volume behaviour, but when drastic mmoves like this occur and when it proved to be such a good leading indicator previously, it's worth a shot.

Ownership Disclosure: I do not currently own HOU ETF units, but will likely be buying some next week.

Disclaimer: Any information contained in the above article represents my opinions only, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. I cannot assess, verify or guarantee the suitability of any particular investment to any particular situation and the reader of the article bears complete responsibility for its own investment research and should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional that provides individualized advice prior to making any investment decisions. All opinions expressed and information and data provided therein are subject to change without notice.

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